Search results for "bayesian calibration"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
An innovative approach to manage uncertainties and stock diversity in the EPBD cost-optimal methodology
2018
The EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) 2010/31/EU is a step in the right direction to promote near zero energy buildings (NZEB) in a step-wise manner, starting with minimum energy performance and cost optimal thresholds for “reference buildings” (RBs) for each category. Nevertheless, a standard method for defining RBs does not exist, which led to a great divergence between MS in the level of detail used to define RBs for the EPBD cost-optimal analysis. Such lack of harmonisation between MS is further evident given the resulting large discrepancies in energy performance indicators even between countries having similar climate. Furthermore, discrepancies of 30% or higher betw…
Bayesian calibration of the nitrous oxide emission module of an agro-ecosystem model
2008
1. NitroEurope Open Science Conference on Reactive Nitrogen and the European Greenhouse Gas Balance ; Ghent (Belgique) - (2008-02-20 - 2008-02-21) / Conférence; Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the main biogenic greenhouse gas contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate therefore requires a capacity to predict N2O emissions in relation to environmental conditions and crop management. Biophysical models simulating the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in agro-ecosystems have a unique potential to explore these relationships, but are fraught with high uncertainties in their parameters due to their variations over time and space. H…
Assessment of building energy modelling studies to meet the requirements of the new Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
2020
Abstract The cost optimal method (COM) as applied in the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) uses “non-calibrated deterministic reference buildings (RBs)”. Such RBs are defined with single envelope and equipment parameter values, for which calibration with actual building stock energy performance (EP) is not undertaken. Thus, it is not possible to visualise the effect of uncertainties or diversity in the input parameters on cost-optimal level benchmarks and to verify the choice of RBs. The paper proposes an update to the COM via use of “Probabilistic Bayesian calibrated RBs” to handle uncertainties and produce more realistic cost optimal levels to support policy makers in devis…